10Y yield
5.22%
Market snapshot · midday ET
S&P 500
+0.56%
7,714
Nasdaq
+0.96%
27,082
Dow
+0.14%
51,420
30Y yield
5.58%
WTI crude
$91.20
Gold
$4,215
Bitcoin
$83.8k
VIX
15.7
September: Dow −3.5% (snaps five-month win streak) · S&P ~flat · Nasdaq +~2%. Q3: S&P and Nasdaq each +~2.5–3%.
The day in brief AI summary
Cooler inflation met a hotter economy, and stocks liked the combination. August PCE came in at 3.4% headline and 3.0% core — both below expectations — while Q3 GDP was revised up to 2.2% from 1.5%. That is the soft-landing script: disinflation without a growth scare, and the Nasdaq ran with it, up nearly 1%.
The catch is the bond market. The 10-year touched 5.29% yesterday — its highest since 2007 — before easing to 5.22%, and the 30-year is still near 5.6%, a level not seen since 2002. Equities are climbing a wall of historically expensive money, which is why the Dow lagged: 21 of 30 components were red, with Caterpillar and Goldman alone shaving 128 points off the average. Tech and communication services carried the day; everything rate-sensitive did not.
Into the close, the setup is month-end and quarter-end positioning plus one big swing factor: Micron reports after the bell, and memory is the hottest corner of the AI trade right now. A strong print could be the catalyst that breaks this market out of its range; a weak one gives the yield story the upper hand.
What moved markets
Cool PCE, hot GDP. Core inflation at 3.0% vs 3.3% expected, and Q3 growth revised to 2.2%. Rate-hike odds for October fell from 71% to 47% overnight.
Yields still historic. Worst bond quarter in four years. Every multiple in equities is being discounted against 5%+ risk-free money.
Microsoft new high. Hit $519.83 intraday, +1.9%, with earnings seen +14%. Megacap AI capex remains the market's engine — hyperscalers may spend $800B on data centers this year.
Micron after the close. The memory trade is white-hot (WSTS sees memory topping $800B in 2026, +250% YoY). Tonight's print sets the tone for semis into earnings season.
Position watch AI take
TTD$12.05Heavy
The Trade Desk was "in focus" premarket and the Seeking Alpha crowd has turned decisively negative — four downgrade articles in eight days, including tax-loss harvesting pieces. When the sell-side capitulates this loudly this fast, expectations are usually fully reset; the question now is whether the business stabilizes, not whether sentiment can get worse. No new company-specific news today.
FOUR$37.10Mixed
Shift4 sits near its 52-week low with the payments sector broadly soft, and the market is still digesting acquisition debt from the Global Blue deal. Against that: 46% GRLNF growth, $500M in adjusted free cash flow, and institutions quietly accumulating while retail sells. The Q3 print is the proving ground for whether the cash story outweighs the leverage story.
Worth reading · curated from Seeking Alpha
Nvidia Looks Criminally Cheap
The valuation debate on the world's largest company, on the same day DeepSeek showed Huawei AI-chip software aimed at Nvidia.
Nvidia: The Valuation Still Doesn't Match The AI Growth
Pairs well with the above — two sides of the "is $5.6T justified" argument in 48 hours.
The Trade Desk: I Was So Wrong, It's Time To Get Out
Representative of the bearish pile-on in TTD — read it as a sentiment check, not a verdict.
The Trade Desk: Value Trap And Contrarian Thesis Discussed
The other side of the TTD trade — what the contrarian case actually rests on.
Shift4 at Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference — Transcript
Management's own words on the acquisition integration and leverage — the two things the market is pricing.
Past briefs
Wed, Sep 30, 2026Cool PCE lifts tech; yields still historic →